Excerpts from a roundup of recent polling at Tompaine.com...
Last week (July 21-17), Bush and the Republicans' ratings continued to slide across the board. Most notably, Democrats are now favored by 17 points over Republicans on the economy. That's up from a 1 point Democratic disadvantage in January. The Democrats have also increased their margin on the federal budget deficit, from 4 to 13 points over that same time period. ...
Bush's overall approval rating in this poll shows a 3 point decline to 59 percent over the past week and a half. And, over that same time period, his approval rating on the economy has declined the same amount, to an anemic 45 percent, with 51 percent disapproval.
Finally, the poll shows Bush's margin over an unnamed Democrat in 2004 at just 6 points (47 percent to 41 percent) among all adults, and at just 4 points among registered voters (46 percent to 42 percent). ...
Consistent with other recent surveys, the poll shows substantial erosion of the public's trust and confidence in Bush's approach to foreign affairs, especially the Iraq situation. Right now, 47 percent say they cannot trust what Bush is saying about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq, up 7 points in one month. And 52 percent agree Bush did not adequately plan for the postwar Iraq situation and doesn't have a plan to win the peace and bring the troops home.
Gallup poll of 1,003 adults for CNN/USA Today, released July 22, 2003
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of 1,014 likely voters for Democracy Corps, released July 23, 2003
Right now, 57 percent of the public believes that rebuilding efforts in Iraq are going not very well or not well at all, compared to just 38 percent who say that things are going very or somewhat well. Most strikingly, the public now overwhelmingly believes that it's more likely that Iraq will be unstable and chaotic six months from now (65 percent) than that it will have a stable government (30 percent). This is a complete turnaround from April, when the public thought stability was a more probable future by 53 percent to 40 percent.
In addition, 80 percent of the public say that the greatest challenges for the United States in Iraq are yet to come, rather than behind us. And 63 percent believe that the difficulty the United States is currently facing in Iraq is greater than the Bush administration assumed it would be.
On the issue of the WMD, most believe the Bush administration (63 percent), and even President Bush (55 percent), were not being fully truthful in presenting evidence on Iraq's WMD to justify going to war. Reflecting these views, half of the public now says that, in the future, if the president presents evidence about a country's secret WMD program, they will feel more wary than they did before, compared to 45 percent who say that they will be as trusting as before.
Knowledge Networks poll of 1,066 respondents for Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA), released July 23, 2003