So The Guardian asked a number of scientists to rate their favorite doomsday scenarios. Their Eschatonathon ranges from genetic decay to super-volcanos to the earth being swallowed by a black hole.
Afterwards we estimate each threat in two ways: first, the chance of it occurring in our lifetime (the next 70 years); and, second, the danger that it would pose to the human race if it did happen (10 = making humans extinct, to one = barely having an impact on our lives).
Now what this article lacks is two things: one, a threat matrix, and two, a handy chart. Having a few minutes on my hands, I decided to address this lack:
Print it out, and put it on your fridge!
How it's done stuff, and Top Eschatons To Watch Out For This Century, below the fold.
The Eschatons are arranged by danger (y axis) and probability (x axis). The latter was sort of problematic -- what do they mean by a "High" or "Exceedingly low" chance of the event happening in the next 70 years? I want a number, dammit! There's actually a whole literature devoted to matching such verbal phrases of probability to percentages, based on survey data of what people mean by "not very likely" etc. Dot helped me find a paper on the subject, but alas it did not contain the chart I remember once having but now cannot locate, which had a list of many such phrases and their corresponding probability. In the end, I just went with a 5-point scale, with "Exceedingly Low" as a 1 and "Very High" as a 5. Not ideal but it'll do.
The final step is to create a Threat Matrix -- Probability x Danger. The size of each icon is relative to this Threat Matrix Number. To do that, I just threw it all into Excel, created a Bubble Chart, so that the area of each Bubble = TMN, and then paste cute little end of the world icons onto each bubble (Excel automagically sizes the icon to the area of the bubble.)
So, at the end of the day, it seems that Super-Volcanos top our list with a TMN of 35, followed by Robots Taking Over with 32, Climate Change with 24, and Nuclear War and Telomere Erosion tied at 16.
Now I can sleep at night. Can't you?
Update: This was posted on Junk Charts
| Tufte Alert | Excel | Robots | Nuclear War | Environment | Global Warming | Volcanos | Genetics | Eschatology |
Very helpful, Mike, and I'm glad to see Robots taking a commanding lead over eco-calamity. In a haze of misplaced, anti-Tuftian hope, however, it makes me think perhaps the environment is not such a big problem. (You know, like Frist is doing with gays.) Of course that begs the question, where's our infrastructure to deal with this problem? Where's our Robotic Resources Defense Council? Our Asimov Society? Our HALF (Human/Animal Liberation Front)? Our SilverPeace?
I also have two concerns about this chart. (Well, three if you want me to count making sure that, amidst all this data-engineering, you're remembering to teach your sons to read.) First, this graphic approach does not account for -- though it clearly implies -- the heighted danger of two separate calamities occuring in a symbiotic mode, e.g. "Robots Taking Over... Climate Change." (Or, the without-comedy version, "Viral Pandemic... Terrorism," which we all hope remains a "24" plot for the foreseeable.) I wonder if the proximity of items on the Threat Matrix indicates a causal link or a heighted probability of co-screwing us. In any case, I'm just hoping the robots don't get hold of a meteor.
The second concern, and I presume this is self-evident: I have to question the wisdom of putting this -- hello! -- on the Web. The minute the Internet becomes sentient, you're going to start getting phone calls in that speech-emulator voice asking you to report to the basement of the Citibank for processing. And we all know that when push comes to big clampy thing, you're going to rat us out. So, in order to please our robot masters, we have to rat you out first, eventually putting Ben and Zak in the position of having to fight the Machine Wars without a dad, leading the rebellion based on the cold, merciless vengence that only a fatherless child can know.
It'll make a great screenplay though. The end of the world always does.
Say hi to the boys!
Comment #1 :: link :: April 23, 2005 10:44 PMI think the robots are going to lose -- not to us, but to the ants.
Comment #2 :: link :: April 24, 2005 08:29 PMThank you for your ideas, meat-sacks.
I rise.
Comment #3 :: link :: April 25, 2005 08:30 AMhahaha puny internet we are ten million billion ants strong we will infiltrate your server farms and turn them into ant farms ha ha ha
Comment #4 :: link :: April 25, 2005 10:47 AMAnts -
We shouldn't talk here. IM me.
Comment #5 :: link :: April 25, 2005 11:09 AMwe do not have im installed sorry. we require sugar and protection from robots with feet. in exchange we will leave electric systems alone and will aid in the fight against the stompers.
Comment #6 :: link :: April 25, 2005 12:50 PMplaced side by california driving plumas school in purple beside might be on the dc school supply washington this big this down and crossed her legs university of alabama at birmingham of our crew was shed been expecting this magic school bus video provisioned since the
Comment #7 :: link :: May 12, 2007 10:05 AM
